Topic: Extreme Value Analysis 

BMA worked with National Grid Gas Transmission (NGGT) to develop an innovative methodology and models to quantify the risk adjusted NPV of investment options for St Fergus and other critical infrastructure. St Fergus is the largest gas compression site in the UK, with many of its compressors due to become non-compliant with the Industrial Emissions Directive (IED) in the near future. An integrated real-options analysis model of the possible decision routes which could mitigate risk was built. Monte Carlo, simulation, sensitivity and stress testing analysis underpinned the robust business put forward to the regulator Ofgem to enable additional funding within the RIIO-T1 price control re-opener. NGGT were able to effectively and rapidly quantify the trade-offs between site resilience, operating costs and emissions. Planners were also able to rapidly focus attention on investment schemes with highest NPV, which required further refinement.

This is part 1 of a 3 part webinar series on System Risk & Resilience by Business Modelling Associates. See parts 2 and 3 in the monthly Bitesize Webinar releases. 

Speakers:
• Keri Bunnell, Business Modelling Associates
• Dr Craig Mauelshagen, Business modelling Associates

(3) Business Modelling Associates International: Overview | LinkedIn 

This webinar is free to attend live. If you are an IAM member, you can watch on-demand from 10 December at https://theiam.org/knowledge/  

Click here to Register